If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

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I’m almost more interested in this meta event than the election itself

I have a feeling this election will either validate prediction markets for elections vs conventional polling OR have the opposite effect

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Haha well I thought they might know something. 2016 was a big moment, but you don’t know if that’s just an aberration of collection

lol you were taking them seriously before?

One is poll aggregator, one is betting aggregator, frequented by people that are 1) heavily in crypto, and 2) heavily favor Trump bcs they think he will have a better impact for crypto. 

You cannot compare the two.

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If Trump actually wins decisively, would you change your opinion?

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I don’t tend to believe that something that many people take seriously (many of whom are smart, experienced, and who put their career where there mouth is on this stuff) is wholly meaningless. There’s usually something there in such situations. 

But if the data contradicts it enough, I must adjust thinking…

srs qn why do you take polling seriously now?

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Was a huge moment of skepticism for polls. But some good actors (eg Nate silver) argue that it was because of problems in how they collect info, not more systemic problems. 

So I didn’t write them off entirely… then.

Hilary was a 75% favorite on election night according to fivethirtyeight in 2016.

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this is the really interesting narrative / question.  but also it seems that the other prediction markets (including ones with wallet limits) are closer to polymarket than they are to trad polls, right?

big Polymarket whale skewing the market, most agree it’s close to 50/50 (see Nate Silver). but then if it’s so obvious, why aren’t buyers stepping in for Kamala?

obv there’s an ideological skew to Polymarket as well, but still you’d think many would consider it a hedge to spot holdings.

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Quantitatively, anything that looks like Obama over McCain, Trump over Hillary etc

Qualitatively, anything where is quick and easy for Kamala to concede

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If this happens I will regain respect for polls and the professional predictorate class

North Carolina looks like it's going to flip — women are turning out. that means it will be an early night for Trump. him and Vance have been to Wilmington like 10x more this cycle, and i haven't seen any coverage from media as to why.

I felt this way in 2016 — as did a whole lot of other people — but then things were not as eventful as anyone hoped or feared… and promptly swang back to the other side. This more than anything seems to be the American Way.

(Do I feel like we are playing with fire though? Yes.)

If trump wins decisively, we've all got bigger problems than polls, Tim.

these polls seem like the easiest way to manipulate public opinion  🙈

I agree with you. But if so, I’m still very curious about why polls fail so spectacularly here.

Funny how no one was calling markets being manipulated while K had higher odds

Why would anyone take polls seriously? Our political class is clearly a bunch of Jewish mafia controlled criminals.