If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

building /bracket | talking /greatbooks | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

I have a feeling this election will either validate prediction markets for elections vs conventional polling OR have the opposite effect

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Same here, since the decoupling of polling and prediction its going to make for a real fascinating study. 

Also IF prediction markets have been manipulated and are not tied to the truth this is a massive arbitrage opportunity.

I’m almost more interested in this meta event than the election itself

Appreciate the wise summary @boscolo.eth 🙏

I am but a humble Canadian eating 🍿 and watching

I've seen enough elections to know sometime polls are spot on, and sometime they are dead wrong. Like polls, current prediction markets are biased by the groups that use them.

I've also been around long enough to know the winning president is never as bad as the losing side says they will be.

Trump could win. And the prediction market could still be a false indicator though.