If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

One is poll aggregator, one is betting aggregator, frequented by people that are 1) heavily in crypto, and 2) heavily favor Trump bcs they think he will have a better impact for crypto. 

You cannot compare the two.

playing /bracket, assisting /bracky, talking /greatbooks

Why isn’t the gap closing if it’s mispriced?

Also Kalshi is available to US participants and isn’t crypto.

Crypto enthusiast, ethics, movies and photography.

Founder of /gentlemanswagers

Good question, and frankly, I'm not sure, so I can only take a guess. 

tinfoil theories (Russia, China and North Korea) aside, I'd guess that these "bets" are a bit different than e.g. sports bets, where when there is sufficient spread, you'd increase your bets, sort of like 7 times hits red, black is the favorite the next round. I've seen people bet on their favorite sports team even when it is a heavy underdog and has no chance of winning. This is political and although people are emotional about it, they are less likely to bet on the outcome, even if the odds are speaking it could be a winning bet. 

I have another guess but I won't comment on the profiles of average voter base for neither, as I don't want this to get too political or controversial. 

Again, just a guess (I'm not a psychologist, so I could be waaay off).

Why isn’t the gap closing if it’s mispriced?

Also Kalshi is available to US participants and isn’t crypto.

https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections

About the polymarket thing? Yes, I tend to rethink my opinions if confronted with facts, and him winning decisively would be facts (if not stolen election, of course) . I mean, I don't see a way that a win THAT decisive actually comes, so it's tough to even think about it. 

But IMO such a huge difference (what was it, 24 pts or sth similar) comes solely bcs people that are in crypto and pro Trump, are also more likely to bet in such an aggregator. Just my two cents, I don't have a source on that.

It's the same as asking a person from a landlocked country, that never left that same country, if they ever met a pirate.

18 days ago me is an idiot that needs to change their opinion, I guess. 

Would you look at the size of the foot in my mouth??

If Trump actually wins decisively, would you change your opinion?