vaughn tan

@vt

299 Following

1348 Followers

vaughn tan pfp

Innovation stalls when we treat uncertainty like risk. In my latest article, I share a 4-day program helping public sector teams embrace uncertainty as a strategic resource—not a threat to be planned away. Ready to transform policy work in your govt? https://vaughntan.org/transformpolicy

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

vaughn tan pfp

just spent 5h undoing a conceptual mess: an AI-generated essay with subtly incorrect references (some don't exist at all) that had been subtly mis-"read" by the AI system. this is further evidence that when using AI systems to do work, humans need to be clear about what the meaning-making part of the work is, and be vigilant about keeping ownership of that part: https://uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/ai-meaningmaking

1 reply

0 recast

2 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

don't people here like giant fiberglass roast ducks?

0 reply

0 recast

2 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

itap of a big fibreglass roast duck

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

vaughn tan pfp

2 replies

0 recast

5 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

5 replies

0 recast

9 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

Strategy ≠ planning. Efficiency ≠ resilience. Interviews ≠ casual chats. AI ≠ meaningmaking. Grab bag of ideas on how we get it wrong — and how to get it right. 👉 https://uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw1425

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

vaughn tan pfp

Uncertainty is inevitable — and also necessary for growth. IDK is a self-training tool that helps you get better at being productively uncomfortable, one prompt at a time. Because the future of work won’t wait. 🔶 https://productivediscomfort.org/

0 reply

0 recast

2 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

The FT's new piece on economic uncertainty gives me another opp to point out that uncertainty /= risk: https://vaughntan.org/uncertaintyrisk and the consequences of mistaking uncertainty for risk: https://vaughntan.org/the-consequences-of-mindset-mismatch and why it's valuable to understand the difference: https://uncertaintymindset.org/ Here's the FT piece: https://www.ft.com/content/26d15d7e-dd36-4ca1-b974-da8a57bce290

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

vaughn tan pfp

1 reply

0 recast

3 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

just a reminder to the ether, given Current Conditions, that 1. uncertainty /= risk 2. it makes no sense to act in uncertain situations using risk mindsets and risk-management approaches 3. i have been writing _at length_ about how to have an uncertainty mindset, based on actual time spent with teams of people doing it. 4. you can find the book here: https://uncertaintymindset.org/ 5. you can find working chapters for the next book here: https://vaughntan.org/notknowing

0 reply

0 recast

2 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

on substack, a reader commented that interview summaries are often bland and uninsightful. i agree. summarisation must assume that the underlying information is patterned (summaries focus on the pattern and omit the non-patterned data) and that the data that doesn’t conform to the pattern is sufficiently irrelevant to be discarded from the summary — summaries are a kind of compression. the summary problem is that the really emergent signals are rarely (never?) identifiable as a pattern yet. so they are discarded as noise instead of signal. i think even most humans, without training and guidance, would focus more on obvious signal than on emergent signal that appears to be noise. to pick up emergent signals, research needs to be designed better: https://vaughntan.org/betterinterviews

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

vaughn tan pfp

hello hello economists and finance types who believe that uncertainties are modelable just curious: are you doing your decisionmaking in the current market situation one using cost-benefit analysis? what about expected value calculations? asking for a friend

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

vaughn tan pfp

/itookaphoto of at least six different jelly textures

2 replies

0 recast

2 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

Orgs routinely drop Big Money on interview research that yields no insights. The problem isn't the method — it's how we approach the 4 phases of the interview lifecycle. I wrote about how to fix this widespread issue and get deep interview insights: https://vaughntan.org/betterinterviews

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

vaughn tan pfp

Public sector orgs don’t just need efficiency and planning — they need strategy, resilience, and the right kind of slack. Read more here: https://vaughntan.org/efficiencytrap

2 replies

0 recast

3 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

i've been writing + consulting about how uncertainty is different from risk for almost 20 yrs. we're going through a profound reordering now and it must be interpreted + acted on as uncertainty, not as risk. risk-management doesn't work when everything is cray. https://vaughntan.org/uncertaintyrisk

1 reply

1 recast

7 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

rex stout, william gibson, lydia davis, iain m. banks, robertson davies, sarah caudwell, guy davenport, a.r. ammons, gene wolfe, eudora welty, john le carré, barry hughart, ursula le guin, ted chiang, fred vargas, martha wells, jim harrison

0 reply

1 recast

2 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

itap of critical /infrastructure

0 reply

0 recast

5 reactions

vaughn tan pfp

why did the latest version of whatsapp desktop (for mac) take focus away from a chat when it is selected from the list of chats? (previously, you'd select a chat from the list, and the cursor would automatically focus in the chat.) what good reason could there be for a change that degrades the UX in this way? 😑

1 reply

0 recast

1 reaction