If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

building /bracket | talking /greatbooks | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

srs qn why do you take polling seriously now?

not-knowing ✹ 🍕-fan ✹ productive discomfort + idk ✹ Marseille / Singapore / Auvergne ✹ The Uncertainty Mindset (2020) ✹ now: vaughntan.org/now-ish

it's been a few cycles in several countries where polling has been far off from "reality"

I don’t tend to believe that something that many people take seriously (many of whom are smart, experienced, and who put their career where there mouth is on this stuff) is wholly meaningless. There’s usually something there in such situations. 

But if the data contradicts it enough, I must adjust thinking…