If Trump wins decisively, I’m never taking polls seriously again

building /bracket | talking /greatbooks | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

big Polymarket whale skewing the market, most agree it’s close to 50/50 (see Nate Silver). but then if it’s so obvious, why aren’t buyers stepping in for Kamala?

obv there’s an ideological skew to Polymarket as well, but still you’d think many would consider it a hedge to spot holdings.

building /juicebox | product marketing & growth | prev. NounsDAO, RAW DAO | learning to code

I think so, yeah. I can’t quite wrap my head around it. maybe it’s psychological e.g. most Polymarket users skew R, so more likely to buy Trump shares and stubbornly less inclined to buy Kamala shares even if they “know better” and/or it hedges their huge potential losses on spot holdings.

occam’s razor is that Polymarket’s user demographic is simply more inclined to gamble, thus more likely crypto holder, thus more likely buying Trump odds. same lingering question re: hedging though.

this is the really interesting narrative / question.  but also it seems that the other prediction markets (including ones with wallet limits) are closer to polymarket than they are to trad polls, right?