Ferran 🐒 on Warpcast

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Ferran 🐒 pfp

1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcaster’s social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, there’s a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isn’t appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. It’s a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...

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Ferran 🐒 pfp

2/2 By the end of the year, this will likely force a major pivot in Farcaster go-to-market strategy toward something far more sexy than what’s been shown so far (which, tbh, has been one of the least exciting GtMs I’ve seen in a long time for a project with this much potential). Hopefully, that pivot will finally position it as a protocol that feels useful to a broader audience, and we’ll start to see more mainstream growth and regular developers and communities will find utility in Farcaster. This is just a positive criticism, I want FC success, and I'm looking forward to proving myself wrong!

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Icetoad 🍕 🎩 🐈

Welcome back to Farcaster

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Stuart pfp

Hey are you calling us a bunch of weirdos??? Because it's true.

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Rafi pfp

@ferran doesn’t cast often but when he does… 💜

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Pichi 🟪 🍡🌸 pfp

Pichi 🟪 🍡🌸

These are the hot takes I’m here for.

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@ghostlinkz.eth

> People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets The bigger issue is that most internet users still don’t have a crypto wallet. Warpcast went with a "social first" approach but hasn’t been very successful at growing the user base. Now CB is going to try the "wallet first" strategy. What worries me is that we’ve already seen how CB onboarding can play out. They did a Farcaster quest back in Dec 2023, where they paid people $20 to sign up, and from what I saw, it led to more spam than actual users. Im not sure why this time would be any different, but I hope they've figured it out

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The core problem here is that there seem to be conflicting visions of what Farcaster is, or what it should be about. If the goal is to create a social network (which is usually understood as ‘social media’ of some sort), many of the growth ideas are likely counterproductive, or indeed self-sabotaging. To anyone outside a narrow niche, these flaws are obvious. But if the intent is to build a semi-social protocol centered on speculation and value extraction, then those very decisions might make perfect sense. The catch is that such a model has a rather hard ceiling on growth. In practice, these two goals may be fundamentally at odds. (or at least they are up to a certain point)

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thanks for sharing my main response is to point out that every path is risky and likely to fail— the name of the game is taking the right risks! if you aren't willing to take a contrarian bet that seems unlikely to succeed you won't disrupt the established players that have more resources and network effects than you, if the path was obvious they'd already be doing it for ex I can see your point no one is asking for social feeds in their wallets right now, but I also see hundreds of millions of creators generating hundreds of billions of dollars for platforms and seeing a relatively minuscule amount of that returned to them, and they're starting to wake up and say wait why is someone else profiting off my content, and something at the intersection of social + wallet being an answer to that that doesn't mean to current iteration of the CBW app is going to be a huge success or that MM has found the magic answer and won't pivot its strategy ofc but not having PMF is the default and shots much be taken

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enki40 pfp

This is the kind of argument and manifestation of freedom of opinion that makes me enjoy and hope well for human reasoning. Excellent points, right line of suggestions, straight to the point and aseptic and not at all fanciful prediction.

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Pau 🎩 ⛓️‍💥

My prediction is that Farcaster only grows on a Bull Market, when shit tokens and NFTs are all around. So while there is economic incentive to join and farm, new users flow. Ofc this is not sustainable. There is few quality content. Farcaster didn't take the opportunity to become the new Twitter when Twitter disappeared. It's not sexy for mainstream ppl. I'm not able to find a single Cast of someone not related to crypto... So IMHO the focus should be to reach out to the real world.

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@meganmichelle.eth

https://warpcast.com/meganmichelle.eth/0xd717145c

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There are some solid points tbf

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Gordo pfp

Reality bomb 💣 The problem with true social growth is that the gtm needed to do it is not very appealing idealistically. DDOS people brain for attention and put cat gifs, onlyfans storefronts and endless video scrolling farming minds and you have the grooowth.

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arella pfp

Hot take— could be true. Could be the pathway to the next 1B users. Time will tell.

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@normancomics.eth

I hear you, but I see huge potential here. If @coinbase, @base & @farcaster leaned into defi, airdrops🪂🧧 & a FULLY-integrated @farcaster (beyond AI agent posts, which I like btw…shout out @senpi.eth ), it could shine. Mainstream users might still take one look and go, “Where’s the gambling? How can I use this to get rich & quit my job at Wendy’s?” But, what if wallets like @coinbasewallet , @rainbow , @zerion.eth , @metamask, @safe & @reown joined forces w/ @backpack-app , @phantomwallet , @leapwallet , @okx-web3 & @magiceden ? Unifying L1s, L2s, L3s, rollups & ZKs to🏗️🛠️⚙️something epic for normies & web3 degens. Still possible. I kind of like the wild-wild-west, niche, sub-subculture vibe of SocialFi/DeFi & 🧱⛓️ in general, however. So I can see how this plays out either way.

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