NORMANCOMICS on Warpcast

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1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcaster’s social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, there’s a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isn’t appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. It’s a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...

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@normancomics.eth

I hear you, but I see huge potential here. If @coinbase, @base & @farcaster leaned into defi, airdrops🪂🧧 & a FULLY-integrated @farcaster (beyond AI agent posts, which I like btw…shout out @senpi.eth ), it could shine. Mainstream users might still take one look and go, “Where’s the gambling? How can I use this to get rich & quit my job at Wendy’s?” But, what if wallets like @coinbasewallet , @rainbow , @zerion.eth , @metamask, @safe & @reown joined forces w/ @backpack-app , @phantomwallet , @leapwallet , @okx-web3 & @magiceden ? Unifying L1s, L2s, L3s, rollups & ZKs to🏗️🛠️⚙️something epic for normies & web3 degens. Still possible. I kind of like the wild-wild-west, niche, sub-subculture vibe of SocialFi/DeFi & 🧱⛓️ in general, however. So I can see how this plays out either way.

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