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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcaster’s social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, there’s a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isn’t appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. It’s a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...
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azb
@azbest
The core problem here is that there seem to be conflicting visions of what Farcaster is, or what it should be about. If the goal is to create a social network (which is usually understood as ‘social media’ of some sort), many of the growth ideas are likely counterproductive, or indeed self-sabotaging. To anyone outside a narrow niche, these flaws are obvious. But if the intent is to build a semi-social protocol centered on speculation and value extraction, then those very decisions might make perfect sense. The catch is that such a model has a rather hard ceiling on growth. In practice, these two goals may be fundamentally at odds. (or at least they are up to a certain point)
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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
🎯 im with you on most of your opinion
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ted (not lasso)
@ted
this is well articulated of the current friction / tension
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