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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcaster’s social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, there’s a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isn’t appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. It’s a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...
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Tony D’Addeo
@deodad
thanks for sharing my main response is to point out that every path is risky and likely to fail— the name of the game is taking the right risks! if you aren't willing to take a contrarian bet that seems unlikely to succeed you won't disrupt the established players that have more resources and network effects than you, if the path was obvious they'd already be doing it for ex I can see your point no one is asking for social feeds in their wallets right now, but I also see hundreds of millions of creators generating hundreds of billions of dollars for platforms and seeing a relatively minuscule amount of that returned to them, and they're starting to wake up and say wait why is someone else profiting off my content, and something at the intersection of social + wallet being an answer to that that doesn't mean to current iteration of the CBW app is going to be a huge success or that MM has found the magic answer and won't pivot its strategy ofc but not having PMF is the default and shots much be taken
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Tony D’Addeo
@deodad
I do appreciate you taking to the time to think and think having you + the FC community asking questions and noodling on better positionings for Farcaster is Good
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