Vitalik Buterin on Warpcast

Vitalik Buterin pfp

Vitalik Buterin

From prediction markets to info finance: https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/11/09/infofinance.html

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Aaron Blaisdell / ittybit 533 pfp

Aaron Blaisdell / ittybit 533

@aaronblaisdell

very interesting perspective. I hadn't thought much about the information value of prediction markets until the Bsnkless podcast started discussing them recently. Your article deepens the perspective. I could see them as valuable also in public health, such as whether a Paleo or vegan diet is generally healthier for humans. I know where I'd put my money, but I'd also like to see where the crowd's money falls on this kind of question rather than just "health" agencies.

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Yassine Landa pfp

@yassinelanda.eth

Thanks @vitalik.eth for the write up! Trying here as signal to noise is much better on Farcaster! Prediction market are a great « social epistemic » tool but they tend to get centralized in cases where there is no objective truth, no? In the Venezuelan election example UMA protocol overrode consensus of the last prices at the end (rekt.news/hedging-bets/).

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Jason Crawford pfp

@jasoncrawford.eth

And today Futarchy launched. Surprised if you don't already know about this, but just in case: https://warpcast.com/jasoncrawford.eth/0x89bb5d69

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Polymarket pfp

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Goldy pfp

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cqb pfp

What do you think about reputation markets?

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jd 🌺 pfp

this was a good read. thanks for putting it together

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tomu pfp

Great read! How does 'info-finance' ensure that value asymmetry doesn’t just replicate traditional markets, where those with significant capital can amplify certain narratives and obscure others? With Polymarket, we saw only a small percentage of bets significantly influencing outcomes

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JB Rubinovitz ⌐◨-◨ pfp

JB Rubinovitz ⌐◨-◨

This solves a problem I had today, thank you

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nicovrg pfp

Its nice to write about how futarchy could work in theory as people have done for decades, it'd be even better to at least mention The-MetaDAO that has been live for over a year, taking the idea in the real world, going from theory to practice Genuinely curious if you ever heard about it /futarchy

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lawrenceroman.eth pfp

lawrenceroman.eth

@askgina.eth please read this post by Vitalik and explain to me in layman’s terms so I can share with my normie friends https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/11/09/infofinance.html

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Breck Yunits pfp

"Scientific peer review". All great scientific papers make strong predictions. It would be fun to start a trend where every paper published comes with a prediction that one can bet on. Side note: I love your use of bolding--helps me skim.

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bloke pfp

How about we use multiple systems in combination to establish truth? Whether it be reputation, gambling, or democracy… all prove valid metrics to showcase trust for information. The most expensive today being, we don’t know which companies to trust.. There exists a need on the internet for a replacement of the State, an ethos that gives certificates which other DAOs choose to follow. A lightweight, higher level authority which a) sets the standards of DAO governance snd operation b) certifies other DAOs for following said principles @xh3b4sd.eth

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Joe Blau 🎩 pfp

You had a chance to create a new term. Prefi

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Bitcoinfutures pfp

@bitcoinfutures

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dibo pfp

이더 펌핑 가즈앗 !

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Anemale🎩↑🔵ツ pfp

Anemale🎩↑🔵ツ

Gm @trebor69 @betashop.eth 🐂Ⓜ️💜

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Kevin pfp

I wrote recently about how futarchy unlocks trustless joint ownership and is much more powerful than people realise https://www.umbraresearch.xyz/writings

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geoist pfp

How about that?

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