Vitalik Buterin pfp
Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
From prediction markets to info finance: https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/11/09/infofinance.html
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Aaron Blaisdell / ittybit 533 pfp
Aaron Blaisdell / ittybit 533
@aaronblaisdell
very interesting perspective. I hadn't thought much about the information value of prediction markets until the Bsnkless podcast started discussing them recently. Your article deepens the perspective. I could see them as valuable also in public health, such as whether a Paleo or vegan diet is generally healthier for humans. I know where I'd put my money, but I'd also like to see where the crowd's money falls on this kind of question rather than just "health" agencies.
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Yassine Landa pfp
Yassine Landa
@yassinelanda.eth
Thanks @vitalik.eth for the write up! Trying here as signal to noise is much better on Farcaster! Prediction market are a great « social epistemic » tool but they tend to get centralized in cases where there is no objective truth, no? In the Venezuelan election example UMA protocol overrode consensus of the last prices at the end (rekt.news/hedging-bets/).
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Jason Crawford pfp
Jason Crawford
@jasoncrawford.eth
And today Futarchy launched. Surprised if you don't already know about this, but just in case: https://warpcast.com/jasoncrawford.eth/0x89bb5d69
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Polymarket pfp
Polymarket
@polymarket
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Joe Blau 🎩 pfp
Joe Blau 🎩
@joeblau
You had a chance to create a new term. Prefi
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cqb pfp
cqb
@cqb
What do you think about reputation markets?
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Goldy pfp
Goldy
@goldytalks
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tomu pfp
tomu
@tomu.eth
Great read! How does 'info-finance' ensure that value asymmetry doesn’t just replicate traditional markets, where those with significant capital can amplify certain narratives and obscure others? With Polymarket, we saw only a small percentage of bets significantly influencing outcomes
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JB Rubinovitz ⌐◨-◨ pfp
JB Rubinovitz ⌐◨-◨
@rubinovitz
This solves a problem I had today, thank you
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nicovrg (fut/acc) pfp
nicovrg (fut/acc)
@nicovrg
Its nice to write about how futarchy could work in theory as people have done for decades, it'd be even better to at least mention The-MetaDAO that has been live for over a year, taking the idea in the real world, going from theory to practice Genuinely curious if you ever heard about it /futarchy
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lawrenceroman.eth pfp
lawrenceroman.eth
@lawrenceroman
@askgina.eth please read this post by Vitalik and explain to me in layman’s terms so I can share with my normie friends https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/11/09/infofinance.html
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Breck Yunits pfp
Breck Yunits
@breck
"Scientific peer review". All great scientific papers make strong predictions. It would be fun to start a trend where every paper published comes with a prediction that one can bet on. Side note: I love your use of bolding--helps me skim.
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bloke pfp
bloke
@cloaked-bloke
How about we use multiple systems in combination to establish truth? Whether it be reputation, gambling, or democracy… all prove valid metrics to showcase trust for information. The most expensive today being, we don’t know which companies to trust.. There exists a need on the internet for a replacement of the State, an ethos that gives certificates which other DAOs choose to follow. A lightweight, higher level authority which a) sets the standards of DAO governance snd operation b) certifies other DAOs for following said principles @xh3b4sd.eth
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Anemale🎩↑🔵 pfp
Anemale🎩↑🔵
@anemale.eth
Gm @trebor69 @betashop.eth 🐂Ⓜ️💜
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Kevin pfp
Kevin
@dj-d-sol
I wrote recently about how futarchy unlocks trustless joint ownership and is much more powerful than people realise https://www.umbraresearch.xyz/writings
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geoist pfp
geoist
@geoist
How about that?
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Blake Winston pfp
Blake Winston
@blake-winston
What makes you confident that AI will be able to provide useful signal for micro-markets? The AI tools I’ve used perform the worst at niche tasks, presumably due to the dearth of relevant training data.
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Podcaster pfp
Podcaster
@podcast-lover
Prediction markets again demonstrated the power of the free market. History has been made this election cycle.
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tansatoshi pfp
tansatoshi
@tansatoshi
Indeed and profound
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