From prediction markets to info finance:

https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/11/09/infofinance.html

Thanks @vitalik.eth for the write up! Trying here as signal to noise is much better on Farcaster!

Prediction market are a great « social epistemic » tool but they tend to get centralized in cases where there is no objective truth, no? In the Venezuelan election example UMA protocol overrode consensus of the last prices at the end (rekt.news/hedging-bets/).

Follow to get the best of Farcaster using @mbd - AI Recommendation Engine for Web3. @a16zcrypto css23. Ex-ML Lead @Chainlink. Ex-Sr Data Scientist @AWS.

yeah as I say in the post, market is good as an engine, its effect is only as good as the (non-market) steering wheel. I definitely don't think token voting oracles are the ideal solution.