phil on Warpcast

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Welcome @wildideaman! Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at GMU, blogger at overcomingbias.com, and one of the leading experts and thinkers behind prediction markets. He has agreed to do an AMA for the /books channel. Reply with your questions. :)

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what do you believe is your most underrated idea?

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what do you think is the most likely explanation for the UAP phenomenon?

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@wildideaman why do you think progress in our understanding physics has stalled relative to expectations from the middle of the 20th century? are we just limited by experimental data & more expensive machines, or is there a deeper problem in our ability to come up with new theories?

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@vitalik.eth any questions for Robin while we have him?

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@horsefacts.eth

There's a quote from Bryan Caplan on your Wikipedia page: "When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." Who is Robin Hanson's Robin Hanson?

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@androidsixteen.eth

In a world where anyone can spin up permissionless prediction markets and provide liquidity, how do we navigate societally destabilizing use cases like incentivizing assassinations? https://x.com/typesfast/status/1847008143408353321

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Why is it important for everyone to understand futarchy? and how would you describe futarchy in 1 sentence to those unfamiliar with prediction markets? (ps: huge fan + so excited to see you on FC)

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JB Rubinovitz ⌐◨-◨

Do you think Polymarket is providing the most accurate election predictions? Why or why not?

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what should have a harberger tax?

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@wildideaman have you changed your mind about anything recently? if so, what?

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@horsefacts.eth

Have LLMs changed or challenged your ideas from "The Age of Em?" Are LLMs just a kind of very low-fidelity Em? How good does an LLM need to be to sufficiently "emulate" a human?

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@horsefacts.eth

OK, last one: are there any ideas from your "Alternative Institutions" that might be uniquely enabled by Ethereum or smart contracts? https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/altinst.html

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@wildideaman what/where do you turn for inspiration? how do you think new thoughts?

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What was a seminal moment for you in your career that brought you to prediction markets and being an expert on them?

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@horsefacts.eth

Do today's prediction markets suffer from a low status association with gambling and crypto? Should we seek to make prediction markets more "respectable?"

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@wildideaman heard you don't like the nomenclature 'prediction markets' you yourself ordained. what would you call them today?

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@fluffheadchaser

What do you see as the biggest barriers to wider adoption of prediction markets to improve decision making in business and government?

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𒂠_𒍣𒅀_𒊑

welcome, Robin 👋 as we approach a stage of politics in which the practical application may become more immediately critical than the rhetoric, are there any tips & tricks to leveraging betting markets in order to organize/expand risky projects?

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@markmywords.eth

What's the one bias most of us have, that if we controlled, would save us the most money?

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