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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)
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@m-j-r.eth
if I had to bet, Biden. there's the typical incumbent advantage, disapproval isn't skyrocketing, and many such factors. If the previous election had been held in January 2020, I'd probably say the same for Trump. so I do wonder what the hell will unfold in the following 11 months.
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_121823/
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Ike
@iw
I'd advise against over-indexing on poll numbers. Both 2020 and especially 2016 before it were not strongly predictive until just weeks before the general election. Nate Silver basically got washed out of his own media company, 538, because he could no longer work his predictive magic reliably.
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tomato
@tomato.eth
Approval ratings aren't the same as election polls. Many people who disapprove of Biden's job performance will still vote for him, especially if Trump is the other option.
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Connor McCormick
@nor
How does this compare with prev incumbent president approval ratings?
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@m-j-r.eth
I absolutely agree, nor do I particularly think his reelection is net beneficial. I doubt dems keep congress. otoh, these elections have always seemed "low beta populism" to me, so I'd bet on the possibility that Biden wins popular (just incoming demo & narrative) but loses on electoral basis (more inside baseball).
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