Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)

if I had to bet, Biden. there's the typical incumbent advantage, disapproval isn't skyrocketing, and many such factors. If the previous election had been held in January 2020, I'd probably say the same for Trump. 

so I do wonder what the hell will unfold in the following 11 months.

I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday.

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I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_121823/

Approval ratings aren't the same as election polls. Many people who disapprove of Biden's job performance will still vote for him, especially if Trump is the other option.

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100%, however there is some correlation between approval ratings and the change of that party's seats in Congress.  I think there is an underestimation of how many demos will vote for Biden because "new democrat" narrative in lieu of either populist left/right cautionary tales.