Dan Romero on Warpcast

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Dan Romero pfp

Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)

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Dan Romero pfp

Prediction markets as an input 85% chance Biden is nominee https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n 47% chance Biden wins (dipped under 50% for first time in a while in early December) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres

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phil pfp

probably Biden the age thing is his biggest weakness right now, and forcing the issue before his cognitive decline becomes more apparent would be an advantage for him other candidates don't have enough mindshare yet and Trump's legal problems have bifurcated his voting base

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@horsefacts.eth

Betting on a snap election tomorrow: buy Trump. Betting on November today: buy Biden, undervalued right now.

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if I had to bet, Biden. there's the typical incumbent advantage, disapproval isn't skyrocketing, and many such factors. If the previous election had been held in January 2020, I'd probably say the same for Trump. so I do wonder what the hell will unfold in the following 11 months.

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sacks thinks the fed is orchestrating the "biden bailout" lol gotta go for biden

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trump only because this is how we reach a true gutter sucking low point, get the Bell Riots of 2024, and move onward to a Federation future

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It's wild to think that both leading candidates are so old that no matter who wins this election, it's unlikely the other will be able to run again next election.

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✳️ dcposch on daimo

talked to a muslim friend who's voting for trump. she's centrist, works in tech. people underestimate how upset both 1. the left, and separately 2. muslims are about gaza. recent quality poll had Trump +10 in michigan

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@aviationdoctor.eth

No one below the age of 77, apparently

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tldr (tim reilly)

Hard to see Trump losing

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Sean Wince 🎩🐹🟢↑ pfp

Sean Wince 🎩🐹🟢↑

Trump. Biden has a very small base that he can truly depend on to turn out for him, since he betrayed nearly every faction of the left that came out for him in 2020. Plus the perception of him being senile. Also the incumbent is usually at a disadvantage when people perceive the economy as in a downtrend.

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Sam (crazy candle person) ✦

Taylor swift or blackpink

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EulerLagrange.eth

@eulerlagrange.eth

I think Trump at this point

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biden, trump hasn't hit the gas yet he's.... biden his time....

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Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩

Probably Biden but it’s a toss up. Anyone have Mark Cuban number? He’s the only one I can think of that could run as an independent and win. Please save us Mark.

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