politics

Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)

Prediction markets as an input 

85% chance Biden is nominee
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

47% chance Biden wins (dipped under 50% for first time in a while in early December)

Prediction markets as an input 

85% chance Biden is nominee
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

47% chance Biden wins (dipped under 50% for first time in a while in early December)
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres

enzo's dad 🇬🇷 in LA 🌴 eng @ fanatics.live ⚾️ alexloukissas.com

Not disagreeing, but 1% of the population is Muslim (so even fewer are Arab descent), so unlikely to be the swing vote. Maybe in Michigan.

Biden may have lost quite a bit of the Arab-American voter support (rightfully so) in the last couple of months. Probably from other cohorts (including myself).

More inputs:

53% chance Democratic Party wins on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1703018246902

77% chance Biden is nominee:

More inputs:

53% chance Democratic Party wins on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1703018246902

77% chance Biden is nominee: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination?tid=1703018308725

Is this a real money prediction market? Most I've seen look like this