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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Prediction markets as an input 85% chance Biden is nominee https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n 47% chance Biden wins (dipped under 50% for first time in a while in early December) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
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Alex Loukissas 🍉
@futureartist
Biden may have lost quite a bit of the Arab-American voter support (rightfully so) in the last couple of months. Probably from other cohorts (including myself).
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Not disagreeing, but 1% of the population is Muslim (so even fewer are Arab descent), so unlikely to be the swing vote. Maybe in Michigan.
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