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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Prediction markets as an input 85% chance Biden is nominee https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n 47% chance Biden wins (dipped under 50% for first time in a while in early December) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
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Alex Loukissas 🍉
@futureartist
Biden may have lost quite a bit of the Arab-American voter support (rightfully so) in the last couple of months. Probably from other cohorts (including myself).
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Not disagreeing, but 1% of the population is Muslim (so even fewer are Arab descent), so unlikely to be the swing vote. Maybe in Michigan.
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Alex Loukissas 🍉
@futureartist
True. I think also lost some of his previous voters (incl. me) on this gross mishandling. But would they vote Trump? Prob no. One more election with the choice being the lesser of two bad choices :(
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