Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)

if I had to bet, Biden. there's the typical incumbent advantage, disapproval isn't skyrocketing, and many such factors. If the previous election had been held in January 2020, I'd probably say the same for Trump. 

so I do wonder what the hell will unfold in the following 11 months.

I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday.

I'm online sometimes

https://bento.me/m-j-r

I absolutely agree, nor do I particularly think his reelection is net beneficial. I doubt dems keep congress. otoh, these elections have always seemed "low beta populism" to me, so I'd bet on the possibility that Biden wins popular (just incoming demo & narrative) but loses on electoral basis (more inside baseball).

How does this compare with prev incumbent president approval ratings?

I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_121823/