Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)

if I had to bet, Biden. there's the typical incumbent advantage, disapproval isn't skyrocketing, and many such factors. If the previous election had been held in January 2020, I'd probably say the same for Trump. 

so I do wonder what the hell will unfold in the following 11 months.

I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday.

I'm online sometimes

https://bento.me/m-j-r

I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_121823/

How does this compare with prev incumbent president approval ratings?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

Ah, 5 points down from Trump and 7 points down from Obama

The only problem is externality pricing.

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