2010+: building webapp was easy but growth hacking, scaling et al didn't have handbooks, yet. so overall non-trivial. today most of it is non-trivial hence SaaS compression

2024: h/w prototypeng is having a 2010 rails moment, design for manufacturing playbooks showing up. Roomba, Apple et al walked so we could run

h/w eng is *at least* 2x more difficult than rails circa 2014? curious what makes you think its getting easier

Made reality.eth. Building Backstop Layer2 https://backstop.technology  Mainly post about goats.

Also on bsky: https://bsky.app/profile/edmundedgar.bsky.social

true some will stay but if you visit see the EV coming out of China, Vietnam,India etc you’ll see how far behind US/EU automakers are. TSLA is not doing what it’s doing b/c it’s magic. It’s b/c they’re full stack. A typical GM car relies on 100s of vendors. Cannot innovate on machine that makes machines

Giant auto companies aren't going anywhere although some of the dozy ones will flunk the transition. People still want cars, they still have economies of scale, EVs aren't really a disruptive technology in the Clayton Christensen sense

re energy: microreactors localize power, commercial nuclear batteries

Working on building products with zkTLS, and subverting web2 systems by encouraging client diversity. A ruthless empiricist.

http://opacity.network

re energy: microreactors localize power, commercial nuclear batteries https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/nuclear-battery-betavolt-atomic-china-b2476979.html

I’d dispute the year+ battery one. Unless you mean a tiny battery for something small.

Going onchain to degen is the fastest way to learn. Not a maxi, leaning into attention, even if it means going the opposite way.

cleanshot just works fine™️ when on mac
https://cleanshot.com

Hello like to ask how do you do this kind of screenshots? Thanks

founding team @HashKey | high fid | casting into the void | ur fren

any/all deeptech eg ai, crypto/zk, space …

Can you explain 7 a bit more? Regulations with respect to what

Good list. Would like to add

14. Energy will become cheap and super abundant

Not wrong directionally imho but unless we get an AI Foom (and even then) I’d count on it all taking frustratingly much much much much longer than it should to happen. Like, first prototype of these batteries in a year and then 8 years before they’re common. Humans are slow.

12 seems like it’s in two disjointed parts unless you’re thinking of it as an arc

Trajectory is toward zero marginal utility of enterprise SaaS

Is consolidation just a step toward that?

I'm hopeful for 4 and 8, but as I learn more about challenges (incentivization, costs, geography), I'm not so sure.

As for 9, why do you think most major car brands will be replaced? And by what?