Murtaza Hussain pfp
Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
One of the most insane things that people seem to take seriously is "technical analysis" of crypto or stock prices. I have never seen any predictive power behind this, its basically akin to astrology and is more like a fun hobby to help with fantasizing about future wealth. Social media has created an entire genre of freelance technical analysts with lots of charts and predictions that never seem to correspond much to reality. Its good fun if you look at it that way but please do not take it too seriously.
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Varun Srinivasan pfp
Varun Srinivasan
@v
It's not entirely fake like astrology - momentum based trading strategies did work once upon a time (c.f. turtle traders) and are still used as short term signals. But the vast majority of charting is just absolute nonsense.
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Rando pfp
Rando
@chasing-pointers
there is predictive power and it's all voodoo. Both things are simultaneously true. The predictiveness falls in the domain of behavioral finance: enough people believe it, despite it being nonsense, that it creates tradeable opportunities to exploit.
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Thomas pfp
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
My favorite is the ubiquitous tautology along the lines of, “if it breaks this resistance it will go up, otherwise it will go down” (and vice versa for support lines). In the famous words of Homer Simpson, “d’oh”
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ionspired pfp
ionspired
@ionspired
painted it 2 yrs ago and haven’t changed ever since 😁 hedge fund traders were laughing at me in the beginning hah. S&P log scale vs normal. check the other comment i left
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agrimony↑🎩 pfp
agrimony↑🎩
@agrimony.eth
Yeah ta is really trying to read market sentiment. But I'm not surprised that it kinda works https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/millionaires-dont-have-astrologers-billionaires-do-20131206-2yuag.html
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sean pfp
sean
@swabbie.eth
it works because it’s a self fulfilling prophecy
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Beninem pfp
Beninem
@beninem
My job out of college was to backtest hundreds of technical analysis indicators and pour through dozens of academic studies on various TA indicators to find the rare diamonds. And you're right to a certain extent. 99% of technical analysis is garbage, with Dunning Kruger effect firmly screwing with traders and indicators only spread further because at one time an indicator "worked" and so then salesman/snakeoil folks took it over and the indicators are usually easily frontrunnable or gameable and so the TA indicators stop showing any predictiveness. To say there's no predictive power though is to not have seen the 'right' things. For example take any kind of objectively simple, scientifically testable and historically backtestable plain vanilla Sentiment indicator and you'll find they're usually quite predictive. Human emotions at extreme sentiment points provide excellent contrarian exit/entrance points which can always beat out buy-and-hold strategies on a risk-return basis.
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Brahtoshi 🐸💜🎩 pfp
Brahtoshi 🐸💜🎩
@brahtoshi.eth
charting is just astrology for men
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frdysk.framedl.eth pfp
frdysk.framedl.eth
@frdysk
It's mostly insider news/trading imo Fcfs
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Future of Radio pfp
Future of Radio
@michael-smith
Chart the lows not the highs.
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gill pfp
gill
@gill
analyzing patterns on an asset chart is simply analyzing human behavior. some price areas tend to cause specific behaviors. there are fancy names and "technical" and what not but in the end, just human behavior plotted on a chart. and that's why it works well enough to give valuable information, humans are predictable beings.
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Sean pfp
Sean
@sean07.eth
If you’re reading and analyzing charts, you’re too late.
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✿ Gil Alter ✿ pfp
✿ Gil Alter ✿
@gilalter.eth
Yep
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silly goose pfp
silly goose
@lovejoy
I think that technical analysis works from the point of view that many people believe in it and trade as if it exists — hence we have all the figures; It doesn't help us to identify whether the price goes up or down, but helps to identify points of interest (potential big movements) - where trading basically makes sense (higher risk - higher reward).. When making the decision itself it’s perfectly fine to use basically any pattern, they all are equal in predictability, — be it technical analysis or a coin toss, or any esoteric practices — if (and until) that actually works for you (call that luck)..
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Mack pfp
Mack
@0xmack
Belief becomes reality. If enough people are convinced how a market *should* behave, that inherently changes how it behaves
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Spaceman Spiff 🎩🍖 pfp
Spaceman Spiff 🎩🍖
@spaceman-spiff
So much noise in the TA space. There is one account I follow that has taken a data based approach and doesn't offer advice, but instead creates a thesis. The key difference between this accounts and most is he also provides a negation for the thesis. I have seen him use a data driven approach to predict shifts from bear to bull and back. He isn't always right, but he doesn't pretend to be. I've found his model to be very helpful for investing.
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