I'm having a heated debate (it's friendly, don't worry) with some VC friends at dinner. 

Need your help!

What happens next with interest rates?

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interest rates are a function of the wage rate, which seemingly has yet to fall — 4.5% in January while CPI was 3.4% meaning it will still be a while before wage inflation is at parity with price inflation.

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Hot take: they'll raise rates slightly later this year

X: wolfofbaystreet | mad scientist @ www.thred.ai 

Higher for longer. Until something breaks, then they'll freak out and shovel liquidity into the economy.

As long as economy isn't breaking inflation will move at least sideways. So until then no rate cuts. Would expect rate cuts around Q3 or Q4 2025 based on business cycles.
Maybe they try a 25 bps rate in between, but it's a tightrope walk until the economy falls apart

Everyone in the comments saying higher for longer
Another hike would not surprise me or any of us it seems

First cut in june, then 2 more later this year. All 0.25bp