Njal

@cryptonjal

418 Following

270 Followers

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Revisited my tipping 🫳 🪀 ✨ From now on, I will send out my $YOYO tips every week (Sat. or Sun.) to everyone on my list with /rewardr ✨ CA: 0xE31876C6A62A813f57b815d8d2d0F5c8Aa06f49B (Base layer) ✨ If you want to receive notifications, search for rewardr (by Dosir) by your frames otherwise enjoy in silence

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Does it sound reasonable when I say BTCUSD around $66.5k in mid-July? Or just testing the ATH of '21 (69k)... 🤔 Anyway, trying things out with Elliot wave. No advice.

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Don't worry about distribution, That is only a quantitative measure 1. Cast things you like 2. Follow people you like 3. Respond to things that interest you That's all. And if you're new: just start casting into the dark, and do the things above. If you're picky on subjects you're interested in, use Buoy (mini app) or search for interesting channels to see if there are people you like. But if you read this cast, you are probably already very deep down this rabbit hole.

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It's that time of year again: May the 4th be with you! ✨

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This response from @mvr made me think: is Farcaster relatively more US than the rest of the world? I approached it model-based (and also asked ChatGPT how many people live in each time zone). The starting point is that one is awake for 16 hours. Then it becomes clear that when more people in the US are awake, the most is cast in relation to the number of awake people. So the answer is: yes, it does seem that people in the US are relatively more active on Farcaster (theoretically, it could also be other American countries). Timezone used: UTC

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I like the fuss from not being there.😎 I just minted the Not at Farcon collectible only for those without Farcon passes. Join me in starting a new cabal!

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One more. Activity during the day (avg. from the last 2 weeks), basically activity goes up from 0h UTC till 16h, and then it goes down again. That daily dip is the fault of the great ocean. So at 16h (UTC) in the afternoon you have the greatest range. Interestingly enough, the quality of the casts goes down as Asia and Europe go to sleep. https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard

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Anyway, these are some thoughts I have.Another spin-off after calculating Farcaster's quantity and quality. I forgot, but investors invested $180M in Farcaster, with the latest deal ($150M) in May 2024. The value of Merkle Manufacturing was estimated at $1B. But, if you look at the image, the protocol revenue over the last 90 days on a given day collapsed after end June 2024.

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Imo measuring Farcaster growth, and quality can be as simple as we did last days here: - Volume in engagement - Quality of that engagement (in this case by spam label) - Number of 1D, and 5d in a row casters https://dune.com/nhejyht/farcaster-dashboard By the way, don't know who came up with 5d, but seems an excellent idea to me. It gets rid of some noise while the numbers stay big enough.

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Based on Rewards data until last week (thanks to @mvr for the data), and current (Apr. 30th '25) spam labels and cast data: 62.4% of all rewards receivers (all periods) has currently casted 5 days in a row. https://dune.com/queries/5063189/8359939 86.5% of all receivers have currently a level 2 spam label, and 7.4% has currently a level 0 spam label. https://dune.com/queries/5063189/8359946

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What could go wrong? - AI is only used for communication, not for strategy in this tool - Copycat trading isn't a good strategy you're only repeat another person's mistakes or your buying into green candle sticks, and maybe function as exit liquidity. - in an up market it could look like that it works, but you probably could have profits anyway. - without analysis your trading blind. It would surprise me if this survives the bear market.

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I always wonder what the chances of success are for a second project, if the first project is suddenly abandoned and people run for the exit... 🤔 It is not unusual for projects to stop or fail, but migrating to another product/project does require more strategy and tact to maintain trust.

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Forgot to add the right channel.

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Got some interesting replies, and tried to test some hypothesis with data (other replies were interesting as well, but not tested by me). 🧵 First, @mvr pointed out to zoom out. - The downtrend of Jan. and Mar. '25 is part of a larger downtrend that's started on May 22nd, 2024. - The uptrend from Feb till end May was (imo) driven by the innovation of frames, and degen tipping. Interestingly enough also on May 22nd, 2024 there was the news that Farcaster raised $150M. https://cointelegraph.com/news/degen-token-surges-17-farcaster-raise-150-million The Theory of Contrary Opinion would suggest that such good news is always around the top.

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Framedl 2025-04-28 3/6*

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Still wondering why casts, and reactions, are lowering. - Is this because of fewer accounts harvesting token drops like degen? - is this the effect of showing the spam label? - a combination of these things or something else?

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Houses (in the US) are even less affordable than in the run-up to the mortgage crisis in 2008.

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😎🙌🏻 Framedl 2025-04-26 2/6*

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Something like that, but older. No CD-ROM, and not sure if it was a 186 or a 286. 20 Mb harddrive. Did some things with batch files, and Qbasic. Also, Lotus 123 (I'm more of a spreadsheet man 😎)

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Iedereen een fijne koningsdag/rommelmarkt! 🛒🛍

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