proxy on Warpcast

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@proxystudio.eth

I've lived in major american cities across the country for my entire life during that time period, crime has steadily declined. on the data side there isn't really disagreement about that. what explains the widespread sentiment that crime is rising? why do so many people believe that cities, in general, are overrun by crime and underpoliced? most interesting to me is that people across regions, demographics, political affiliation are extremely concerned about U.S. (national) crime & routinely think its worse than the year before. but those same respondents, again across the board, are far less worried about crime's seriousness in their local area. they still think its worse than before. it's almost accepted wisdom at this point. what explains the gap in data & sentiment? and perceptions of local crime (not bad but more than before) vs. national crime (bad & getting worse!)

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dialethia 🍖🎩

One party preys on fear and pushs the crime narrative - it has always been effective and even takes hold across party affiliation (which is why they do it).

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I have a feeling a lot of it comes from the demonization of the unhoused. People see folks that do not have a place to live, they assume they are violent criminals and drug users. Because that's what they are being told. And I don't think it's just one party. It's rampant. I feel it in my own body. I have to fight against it. And I do fight against it. But it feels common and difficult to wrestle with and I don't think we are very good at wrestling with it.

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Security has been the underlying premise for all of evolution. It’s even in the blockchain. Healthy paranoia is good, extreme paranoia turns society into Gotham. Imo the difference lies in what information can be consumed, and global affairs is easier to consume than local nowadays. Global has a loose definition.

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I go back and forth on this one, but there is at least anecdotal evidence that crime stats are frequently manipulated for political reasons (many different kinds). it doesn’t explain the full gap in perception vs reality but it probably is more prevalent than we think you can’t fake murder stats but you can massage everything else

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is the data measuring what people call crime?

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How do you prove crime underreporting has increased over the years? I understand the data shows crime is down as a whole. It's hard to reconcile this dissonance when you see people get robbed by migrants on mopeds irl, police not do shit, or even bother to take a report. It's understandable why people don't even bother to call police. I see mentally ill / homeless people go apeshit on normal bystanders all the time on subways and police don't do shit. You see mentally ill / homeless people everywhere in NYC now and inevitable assume it's worse all over the place after seeing this behavior It's all anecdotal. It is true that we have more information than ever and news or apps like citizen, nextdoor, and neighborhood subreddits really amplify small data points. There are a lot of incentives for the data to be conservative. What incentives exist for them to be accurate? https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-media-say-crime-is-going-down-dont-believe-it-e5b07784

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visible ambient chaos in the streets due to homeless epidemic

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Although I have complicated thoughts about this and hesitate to blame them entirely, a media focus on crime, fueled by the use of crime as a scare tactic by law and order politicians (sometimes of both parties but predominantly on the right) has fueled perceptions that crime is bad. Negative news sells, and as media has lost its primary funding lifeline with the rise of the internet, they’ve leaned into this type of content more heavily as they are increasingly profit motivated. Think “caravans” or “American carnage.”

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think ppl are more vocal about it on socials, clips go viral, stuff like that - in general social media proliferates extremes, of which crime is included also seeing stuff locked up at eg CVS/walgreens makes you feel like theft must be rising

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@thecurioushermit

We see more crime reports more often. Before the dawn of the internet and social media, news agencies - whether printed or broadcast - needed to be selective about what stories they shared. Now, with the internet and the demand for constant content, every single crime, no matter how petty, can be reported. So even though statistically there is less crime, we're seeing far more reports of it than before.

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i think one possible a-political factor is that crime FUD is sticky - + when you don't see any crime, you don't assume crime is gone, you assume it's the same but hiding + when you notice crime where you hadn't seen crime before, you assume crime has increased (but realistically maybe it's just changed locations)

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