Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩 on Warpcast

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Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩 pfp

Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩

One problem—more than half the voters are women. I’d estimate that less than 20% of polymarket users are women. If it’s not accurate, that’s likely the reason. I’d be stunned if this is a landslide for either candidate. It’s likely coming down to one or two states that could go either way. (GA and NC in particular) Polls — especially phone polls—likely skew older and closer in gender split. Prediction markets skew younger and male, and include a lot of players outside the US. And yes, polls can be manipulated just like markets. My guess is the polls are closer in accuracy and this election is a coin flip atm. I do love seeing @polymarket in the national discourse though!

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tldr (tim reilly) pfp

tldr (tim reilly)

Interesting point – hadn't thought of this. The counterpoint would be that *if* markets are rational (this is their core hypothesis), then men who want to make money should realize that regardless of their individual biases, there is significant arbitrage opportunity by buying Kamala back up.

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Rachel Wilkins pfp

Couldn’t agree more. But, also, if Americans can’t use Polymarket, surely this data is purely based on outside (non voter) consensus/opinion and not a true prediction of voter sentiment?

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Angelus pfp

When Polymarket was favoring Kamala everyoen here was praising its accuraccy, now that is favoring Trump, for obvious reasons (only white cucks for Kamala likes Kamala) the left just tries to discredit polymarket, why would't you bet in favor of Kamala? Money speaks more!

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base pfp

I see a lot of amazing women here on farcaster!

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christopher carfi

yup. skewing polymarket is easy and “is just money”, so the impressions and attention are >>> than an equivalent spend on an ad buy

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Just Build pfp

Not to mention these are users that are outside the US

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SarveshⓂ️ pfp

@tokenstaker.eth

The difference is just too high to be realistic.

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rileybeans pfp

Polymarket falling off imo

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Taye 🎩🔵 👽⛏️

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Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️

@midnightmarauder.eth

Is it in our national discourse though. Other than crypto twitter I’ve seen no evidence of this. Fwiw 4 people putting 30 million on Trump is hardly reflecting the national sentiment. https://warpcast.com/midnightmarauder.eth/0x1535a798

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Nicklas pfp

People with insider poll data are betting guys. This isnt tough. How do you guys get thru basic life situations ?

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@chriscocreated

fascinating take - so you placed a bet for blue then?

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Joshua Fisher ⌐◨-◨ テ🎩

@joshuafisher.eth

So, realistically someone could win big betting on Kamala at this point

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andrei pfp

I’ve been pretty skeptical of these numbers for similar reasons. The probability can be screwed by placing a higher bet. It’s like an alternative reality where you can shape probability with cash.

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Bixbite 👽 pfp

Like a football game, it will all come down to the last 2 minutes …. They know everyone will be tuning in watching …. They need to squeeze the advertising dollars as much as they can 😂

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dude 🧔🏻↑🔵🟣

Does the Pope shit in the woods

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JMK pfp

Additional context and explanation of following the wallets. https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1g5ztu2/polymarket_is_being_gamed_with_just_a_few_million/?t&utm_source=perplexity&rdt=49633

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