politics

One problem—more than half the voters are women. I’d estimate that less than 20% of polymarket users are women. If it’s not accurate, that’s likely the reason. I’d be stunned if this is a landslide for either candidate. It’s likely coming down to one or two states that could go either way. (GA and NC in particular)

Polls — especially phone polls—likely skew older and closer in gender split. Prediction markets skew younger and male, and include a lot of players outside the US. And yes, polls can be manipulated just like markets. My guess is the polls are closer in accuracy and this election is a coin flip atm. 

I do love seeing @polymarket in the national discourse though!

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fascinating take - so you placed a bet for blue then?

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Oh really, that’s intriguing, so most people voting aren’t in the us. 

I put a bet on

Can’t use polymarket in the US except with vpn and I don’t want to mess with it. But I think that bet would have better returns or even upside for selling pre election. This gap is likely to narrow regardless of final outcome.