politics

One problem—more than half the voters are women. I’d estimate that less than 20% of polymarket users are women. If it’s not accurate, that’s likely the reason. I’d be stunned if this is a landslide for either candidate. It’s likely coming down to one or two states that could go either way. (GA and NC in particular)

Polls — especially phone polls—likely skew older and closer in gender split. Prediction markets skew younger and male, and include a lot of players outside the US. And yes, polls can be manipulated just like markets. My guess is the polls are closer in accuracy and this election is a coin flip atm. 

I do love seeing @polymarket in the national discourse though!

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fascinating take - so you placed a bet for blue then?

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Can’t use polymarket in the US except with vpn and I don’t want to mess with it. But I think that bet would have better returns or even upside for selling pre election. This gap is likely to narrow regardless of final outcome.

Oh really, that’s intriguing, so most people voting aren’t in the us. 

I put a bet on