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Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩
@nounishprof
One problem—more than half the voters are women. I’d estimate that less than 20% of polymarket users are women. If it’s not accurate, that’s likely the reason. I’d be stunned if this is a landslide for either candidate. It’s likely coming down to one or two states that could go either way. (GA and NC in particular) Polls — especially phone polls—likely skew older and closer in gender split. Prediction markets skew younger and male, and include a lot of players outside the US. And yes, polls can be manipulated just like markets. My guess is the polls are closer in accuracy and this election is a coin flip atm. I do love seeing @polymarket in the national discourse though!
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tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
Interesting point – hadn't thought of this. The counterpoint would be that *if* markets are rational (this is their core hypothesis), then men who want to make money should realize that regardless of their individual biases, there is significant arbitrage opportunity by buying Kamala back up.
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Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩
@nounishprof
Good point — and it’ll be interesting to watch this evolve over the next couple weeks. My guess is that this divide will narrow on polymarket if markets are rational. What appears to be happening atm is a mix betting on the odds as well as trying to influence the outcome. Will be a really interesting post mortem.
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Reeeny
@reeeny
Apparently there were 4 big accounts (all fresh wallets funded from Binance) that changed the close call to such a big gap. I don't have enough money to waste it on betting, but the cryptobro bias+crypto bubble+ possible instrumentalization of polymarket as a marketing tool led me to bet on Harris.
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