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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)
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@m-j-r.eth
if I had to bet, Biden. there's the typical incumbent advantage, disapproval isn't skyrocketing, and many such factors. If the previous election had been held in January 2020, I'd probably say the same for Trump. so I do wonder what the hell will unfold in the following 11 months.
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_121823/
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@m-j-r.eth
I absolutely agree, nor do I particularly think his reelection is net beneficial. I doubt dems keep congress. otoh, these elections have always seemed "low beta populism" to me, so I'd bet on the possibility that Biden wins popular (just incoming demo & narrative) but loses on electoral basis (more inside baseball).
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Jared π©
@javabu.eth
I wonder how the anti-Biden pro-palestine movement in battle ground states will impact the race. We've seen a narrative shift from Biden as a response but not sure if it'll be enough.
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@m-j-r.eth
if it bleeds, it leads. plenty captivating, but the overwhelming mention of gaza conflict & apologism, to me, feels like more of a solicitation to argumentative sport than, to be candid, the self-interest of voting demos. how many flipflop against dem ticket after primaries pick a hawk? what's the difference?
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