Content
@
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
grin
@grin
if news sources had reported their predictions as a % rather than a binary "this will/wont happen", do you think @polymarket would still get this much hype?
6 replies
1 recast
58 reactions
tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
That’s a very interesting thought experiment. Of what polymarket’s core-est value prop is. I do still think polymarket would be differentiated even in this case in that (1) the % moves and (2) it is derived from a crowd rather than single source. (At the moment, I think people could care less that it’s crypto.)
1 reply
0 recast
2 reactions
grin
@grin
this cast made me think of it. maybe CBS also had Biden at 25% to drop out, but 25% is still "prolly won't happen" so they compress it down to a no for the normies. idk i dont watch the news. but thinking in %s has been my biggest unlock from following prediction markets https://warpcast.com/dcposch.eth/0xb46c5abc
2 replies
0 recast
1 reaction
grin
@grin
btw i agree that prediction markets do far more than just show probabilistic predictions that move. the magic is incentivizing information aggregation and truthseeking. and MSM is very far from that
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
Great, great pt. I like the nuance a lot. It’s an interesting way of seeing just how much of misleading large groups is “turning percents into binaries” ^Aristotle is aware of this and actually *defines* the the art of rhetoric as “treating probabilities as if they are certainties” (The somewhat controversial thing is that Aristotle considered rhetoric as necessary for politics, even though — or probably, because — it was non philosophical. He believed that the only good thing to be done was for philosophers to discover the truth independently AND ALSO master the art of rhetoric so that the truth could actually be persuasive to non philosophical thinkers.)
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction