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grin
@grin
if news sources had reported their predictions as a % rather than a binary "this will/wont happen", do you think @polymarket would still get this much hype?
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tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
That’s a very interesting thought experiment. Of what polymarket’s core-est value prop is. I do still think polymarket would be differentiated even in this case in that (1) the % moves and (2) it is derived from a crowd rather than single source. (At the moment, I think people could care less that it’s crypto.)
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@grin
this cast made me think of it. maybe CBS also had Biden at 25% to drop out, but 25% is still "prolly won't happen" so they compress it down to a no for the normies. idk i dont watch the news. but thinking in %s has been my biggest unlock from following prediction markets https://warpcast.com/dcposch.eth/0xb46c5abc
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