Gray Tribe

if news sources had reported their predictions as a % rather than a binary "this will/wont happen", do you think @polymarket would still get this much hype?

building /cabin (cabin.city). founder of LBRY.com, odysee.com, vibe.camp, @farcon. more at grin.io

That’s a very interesting thought experiment. Of what polymarket’s core-est value prop is.

I do still think polymarket would be differentiated even in this case in that (1) the % moves and (2) it is derived from a crowd rather than single source.

(At the moment, I think people could care less that it’s crypto.)

very impressive. and what's even more impressive is Polymarket had Biden over 25% to drop out as early as *last september*, when the media herd line right up until the debate was that he was still sharp and any doubts were disinformation.

https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1815102945291276676

this cast made me think of it.

maybe CBS also had Biden at 25% to drop out, but 25% is still "prolly won't happen" so they compress it down to a no for the normies.

idk i dont watch the news. but thinking in %s has been my biggest unlock from following prediction markets

building /bracket | hosting /greatbooks + /gray | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

Great, great pt. I like the nuance a lot. It’s an interesting way of seeing just how much of misleading large groups is “turning percents into binaries”

^Aristotle is aware of this and actually *defines* the the art of rhetoric as “treating probabilities as if they are certainties”

(The somewhat controversial thing is that Aristotle considered rhetoric as necessary for politics, even though — or probably, because — it was non philosophical. He believed that the only good thing to be done was for philosophers to discover the truth independently AND ALSO master the art of rhetoric so that the truth could actually be persuasive to non philosophical thinkers.)

this cast made me think of it.

maybe CBS also had Biden at 25% to drop out, but 25% is still "prolly won't happen" so they compress it down to a no for the normies.

idk i dont watch the news. but thinking in %s has been my biggest unlock from following prediction markets

https://warpcast.com/dcposch.eth/0xb46c5abc