Gray Tribe

if news sources had reported their predictions as a % rather than a binary "this will/wont happen", do you think @polymarket would still get this much hype?

very impressive. and what's even more impressive is Polymarket had Biden over 25% to drop out as early as *last september*, when the media herd line right up until the debate was that he was still sharp and any doubts were disinformation.

https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1815102945291276676

this cast made me think of it.

maybe CBS also had Biden at 25% to drop out, but 25% is still "prolly won't happen" so they compress it down to a no for the normies.

idk i dont watch the news. but thinking in %s has been my biggest unlock from following prediction markets

helping /bracky, playing /bracket reading /greatbooks

this cast made me think of it.

maybe CBS also had Biden at 25% to drop out, but 25% is still "prolly won't happen" so they compress it down to a no for the normies.

idk i dont watch the news. but thinking in %s has been my biggest unlock from following prediction markets

https://warpcast.com/dcposch.eth/0xb46c5abc

btw i agree that prediction markets do far more than just show probabilistic predictions that move. the magic is incentivizing information aggregation and truthseeking. and MSM is very far from that