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Content
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Best argument for why the polls are wrong?
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horsefacts pfp
horsefacts
@horsefacts.eth
It's so close that every poll and average is wrong and the only meaningfully predictive thing they can tell us is "it's going to be very close."
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Adam pfp
Adam
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I live in a battle ground state and we know that it literally takes only a thousands of votes to change the whole outcome of the election. 🗳️ Tomorrow I am volunteering for Stand with Crypto to go door knocking and get support for our industry this coming election. 🗳️ I will be casting about our day and my outlook of what my district looks like on our fight for legislation and industry innovation. Hopefully bullish
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Sean Wince 🎩 pfp
Sean Wince 🎩
@seanwince
Well within the margin of error which means the race is still a dead heat
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Bobo🎩 pfp
Bobo🎩
@double999
People who like trump will have no choice than to gamble It’s that obvious
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Jawa pfp
Jawa
@jawa
Anecdotally I’ve heard a majority of the polls done in the last 30 days are from outfits that tend to skew right. Flood the zone with polls if you will.
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Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩 pfp
Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩
@nounishprof
flip a coin — just as accurate
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Goldy pfp
Goldy
@goldytalks
lack of skin in the game
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Midnight Marauder pfp
Midnight Marauder
@midnightmarauder.eth
Real clear politics has veered right, wasn’t reliable in 22’ An article in The New York Times said that "top political analysts" raised concerns about RealClearPolitics polling averages influenced by polls skewing towards Trump and not adhering to "best practices like person-to-person phone interviews" during the 2020 presidential elections.
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Gabriel Ayuso pfp
Gabriel Ayuso
@gabrielayuso.eth
I don't follow any of this. Does anyone report or at least calculate margins of error? Every dataset, especially polls, will have margins of error. In such a close race there is likely big overlap when considering the margin of errors therefore the results aren't conclusive.
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Commstark 🎩🫂 pfp
Commstark 🎩🫂
@commstark
ppl who make the polls know that the viewers won’t look into the methodology
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miguelito pfp
miguelito
@mc
What is the margin of error?
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GIGAMΞSH pfp
GIGAMΞSH
@gigamesh
Apparently a lot of the polls don't include people didn't vote in 22 or 20 because they're considered unlikely to vote this time, and people are speculating Harris will motivate new female voters.
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Jawa pfp
Jawa
@jawa
There’s also an argument made that polls this tight only show us it’s going to be a tight race. Polling has changed a TON in the last 20 years trying to keep up. I’m not sure they’re actually sampling the population well.
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Levi pfp
Levi
@ackerman01
Sample answer: Polls are limited in sample size and methodology, and cannot accurately predict the true sentiments of an entire population.
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Roxy Riff pfp
Roxy Riff
@roxy3
I don't think the poll with favor trump but you never can tell right?
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martin ↑ pfp
martin ↑
@martin
reversion to the mean
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schorn.eth 🎩 pfp
schorn.eth 🎩
@schorn.eth
For years, trying to capture Trump voters in polls has proved challenging for various reasons. It /might/ be the case that pollsters are now more aggressively correcting for a lack of pro-Trump respondents. Which /might/ over represent them in poll results .
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m_j_r pfp
m_j_r
@m-j-r.eth
the turnout itself is higher than expected, and everyone in the margin is a low-propensity respondent.
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vrypan |--o--| pfp
vrypan |--o--|
@vrypan.eth
Why are they wrong?
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