Dan Romero on Warpcast

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Dan Romero pfp

Early voting totals, polls and markets seem to indicate either GOP landslide—or an Election Day collapse (because so many voted early, some GOP voters stay home because of perceived lead, strong turn out from Dems, indpts and dual hate break for Harris). Kalshi at $100M in volume negating “Americans can’t bet” argument. Robinhood launching trading will also add liquidity. Maybe some big trader will take EV+ Kamala 3x bet in size over the weekend.

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Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️ pfp

Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️

@midnightmarauder.eth

Not sure what polls you are looking at, still all within the margin of error. The betting markets are noise, not something I would take seriously about the sentiment of the American voter.

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horsefacts pfp

@horsefacts.eth

getting increasingly coconut pilled as we approach $0.30

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BrixBountyFarm 🎩 pfp

BrixBountyFarm 🎩

I keep thinking early voting totals are giving the Republicans a false sense cause they were likely over represented by Dems in 2020 due to COVID keeping folks away from in person voting. https://warpcast.com/brixbounty/0x5760cb0f

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Chris Carlson pfp

@chrislarsc.eth

Was this the first time GOP (successfully) marketed early voting? I haven’t been following closely, but in the past, it seemed like so much effort went into trying to reduce turnout

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Galen @Gnosis 🦉 pfp

Galen @Gnosis 🦉

In 2020 you could still buy ‘trump will be inaugurated’ at 10:1 odds on Polymarket until Jan 20th (14 days after Jan 6th)

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Ryan pfp

The skepticism about Polymarket being “skewed” has died down as polls, other betting markets, price of BTC has justified the position

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Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩 pfp

Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩

This is probably good for Dems — motivates them to gotv and may keep some Rs at home. That plus the newly motivated Puerto Rican population and abortion amendments on ballots in many close states could make a close race even closer. Still a coin flip at this point. Agree that on prediction markets, Harris is a better bet in terms of potential upside. But anyone predicting a blue wave at this point is in full copium. It’s going to be close.

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Taye 🎩🔵 👽⛏️ pfp

Taye 🎩🔵 👽⛏️

Results of a beautiful campaign 🇺🇸🚀🤝🍟

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Chris Carella pfp

Vegas odds are the same as Polymarkets, which negates the Polymarket is manipulated arguement.

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Angelus pfp

Last election in Pennsylvania democrats had a 1.1Million lead in early voting, they have only a 400k lead today, every swing state looks like that!

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LucentMonk 🍖***🎩 pfp

LucentMonk 🍖***🎩

a lead in the polls is always dangerous to said leader

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