politics

Early voting totals, polls and markets seem to indicate either GOP landslide—or an Election Day collapse (because so many voted early, some GOP voters stay home because of perceived lead, strong turn out from Dems, indpts and dual hate break for Harris).

Kalshi at $100M in volume negating “Americans can’t bet” argument. Robinhood launching trading will also add liquidity. Maybe some big trader will take EV+ Kamala 3x bet in size over the weekend.

I haven’t been paying attention to polls and voting numbers thus far, yet would imagine dems were far more likely to mail ballots in ‘20 due to COVID, so I’m not going to pay attention to numbers which show a decline in dem numbers and small uptick in R numbers.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1851021574385910254?s=46&t=TVy9rDl3UkuxmVj4e18bOA

I keep thinking early voting totals are giving the Republicans a false sense cause they were likely over represented by Dems in 2020 due to COVID keeping folks away from in person voting.

I keep thinking early voting totals are giving the Republicans a false sense cause they were likely over represented by Dems in 2020 due to COVID keeping folks away from in person voting.

https://warpcast.com/brixbounty/0x5760cb0f

Growing veggies for the fine folks of Southeastern Massachusetts, w/ a focus on nutrient quality. Always interested in the evolution of digital payments.  🎩 

Nate Cohn from NYT had a good article about this over the weekend.

If polling is like 2020, favors Trump. 

If polling is like 2022, favors Harris.

Plenty of signals for both arguments.

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Thanks for sharing.

Makes sense that there isn’t an established pattern.

This was interesting 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-early-vote-doesnt-reliably-predict?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web