politics

Early voting totals, polls and markets seem to indicate either GOP landslide—or an Election Day collapse (because so many voted early, some GOP voters stay home because of perceived lead, strong turn out from Dems, indpts and dual hate break for Harris).

Kalshi at $100M in volume negating “Americans can’t bet” argument. Robinhood launching trading will also add liquidity. Maybe some big trader will take EV+ Kamala 3x bet in size over the weekend.

This is probably good for Dems — motivates them to gotv and may keep some Rs at home. That plus the newly motivated Puerto Rican population and abortion amendments on ballots in many close states could make a close race even closer. 

Still a coin flip at this point. Agree that on prediction markets, Harris is a better bet in terms of potential upside. But anyone predicting a blue wave at this point is in full copium. It’s going to be close.