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Jason Goldberg Ⓜ️ πŸ’œ pfp
Jason Goldberg Ⓜ️ πŸ’œ
@betashop.eth
Last week I posted about the massive amounts of $$ going into polymarket trump bets, and asked why? This article has a fascinating economic theory take on it: If you believe in u.s. equities (10% ARR) betting big on trump in prediction markets is a massive hedge against his potential victory. Say what? If Kamala wins the u.s. likely stays in the same course as the last 100 years. Stock market goes up as it always does over the long term. If trump wins, this could be the big one. Shock to the system. Massive tariffs and changes to tax code. Mass deportations. Isolationism. Disruption of the bond market. Stock market goes down and continues to go down for years. So betting big on trump winning is a hedge against that. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/27/business/market-history-elections-disasters.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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bark bark pfp
bark bark
@king
Christ Jason, that article is absolute sensational trash.
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Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️ pfp
Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️
@midnightmarauder.eth
Fascinating idea, although I think it’s as simple as election interference in the form of cheap advertising. That is compared to the massive amounts spent with little impact. It has an air of legitimacy, bc it’s a quasi poll Then gets picked up daily on x and repeated in the echo chamber ad infintum. Makes more sense when you see the millions pumped into Tenet media by the Russians
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skllz.base.eth κœ©β“‚οΈπŸ–πŸŽ© pfp
skllz.base.eth κœ©β“‚οΈπŸ–πŸŽ©
@skllzrmy
only if you're heavily invested in western markets. if you're heavily invested in black markets, and the west has you strangled with sanctions, you probably see this as an investment opportunity to sway public opinion toward a more favorable candidate for you.
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Satish Acharya pfp
Satish Acharya
@cartoonistsatish
Interesting theory. One thing I'm sure of is, if Trump returns to power he'll be in the news every day of his tenure. He loves attention!
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HELP_MEπŸŽ©πŸ‘Ύβ“‚οΈ pfp
HELP_MEπŸŽ©πŸ‘Ύβ“‚οΈ
@kopasamsu
Betting on Trump in prediction markets acts as a hedge if equities drop under his policies potential winnings offset losses. It’s a financial strategy balancing market uncertainty with political outcomes.
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Taye πŸŽ©πŸ”΅ πŸ‘½β›οΈ pfp
Taye πŸŽ©πŸ”΅ πŸ‘½β›οΈ
@casedup
Almost one billion in volume is crazy. Even Harris at a little over a half a billion in volume is intense.
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Bobo🎩 pfp
Bobo🎩
@double999
I hadn’t thought of it like that. What’s the general sentiment in polymarket? Mostly hedgers or true believers?
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HamizIbrahim pfp
HamizIbrahim
@h2-10
Ⓜ️Ⓜ️Ⓜ️
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czar pfp
czar
@czar
personally, think its just a bet folks are making to win and make some money. nothing more to it.
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Imran β“‚οΈπŸβ“‚οΈ pfp
Imran β“‚οΈπŸβ“‚οΈ
@imran1452
Investments have been made behind Trump on four sides,,, this investment will win him
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Nicklas pfp
Nicklas
@mr-silverback
yeah like it was going down last time he was in office. just down down down
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aferg pfp
aferg
@aaronrferguson
I hadn’t considered the potential for using polymarket as a hedge before. Paywalled out of the article though πŸ˜…
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Angelus pfp
Angelus
@angelus.eth
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAA this is a new one a extremely gay theory
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