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Jason Goldberg Ⓜ️ 💜
@betashop.eth
Last week I posted about the massive amounts of $$ going into polymarket trump bets, and asked why? This article has a fascinating economic theory take on it: If you believe in u.s. equities (10% ARR) betting big on trump in prediction markets is a massive hedge against his potential victory. Say what? If Kamala wins the u.s. likely stays in the same course as the last 100 years. Stock market goes up as it always does over the long term. If trump wins, this could be the big one. Shock to the system. Massive tariffs and changes to tax code. Mass deportations. Isolationism. Disruption of the bond market. Stock market goes down and continues to go down for years. So betting big on trump winning is a hedge against that. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/27/business/market-history-elections-disasters.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️
@midnightmarauder.eth
Fascinating idea, although I think it’s as simple as election interference in the form of cheap advertising. That is compared to the massive amounts spent with little impact. It has an air of legitimacy, bc it’s a quasi poll Then gets picked up daily on x and repeated in the echo chamber ad infintum. Makes more sense when you see the millions pumped into Tenet media by the Russians
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Nicklas
@mr-silverback
moving the needle on 2.25 billion invested is maybe the most expensive way to market that exists. Are you using basic common sense any longer ?
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