politics

Last week I posted about the massive amounts of $$ going into polymarket trump bets, and asked why?

This article has a fascinating economic theory take on it:

If you believe in u.s. equities (10% ARR) betting big on trump in prediction markets is a massive hedge against his potential victory. 

Say what?

If Kamala wins the u.s. likely stays in the same course as the last 100 years. Stock market goes up as it always does over the long term. 

If trump wins, this could be the big one. Shock to the system. Massive tariffs and changes to tax code. Mass deportations. Isolationism. Disruption of the bond market. Stock market goes down and continues to go down for years. 

So betting big on trump winning is a hedge against that.

Last week I posted about the massive amounts of $$ going into polymarket trump bets, and asked why?

This article has a fascinating economic theory take on it:

If you believe in u.s. equities (10% ARR) betting big on trump in prediction markets is a massive hedge against his potential victory. 

Say what?

If Kamala wins the u.s. likely stays in the same course as the last 100 years. Stock market goes up as it always does over the long term. 

If trump wins, this could be the big one. Shock to the system. Massive tariffs and changes to tax code. Mass deportations. Isolationism. Disruption of the bond market. Stock market goes down and continues to go down for years. 

So betting big on trump winning is a hedge against that.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/27/business/market-history-elections-disasters.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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I hadn’t thought of it like that. What’s the general sentiment in polymarket? Mostly hedgers or true believers?