politics

Last week I posted about the massive amounts of $$ going into polymarket trump bets, and asked why?

This article has a fascinating economic theory take on it:

If you believe in u.s. equities (10% ARR) betting big on trump in prediction markets is a massive hedge against his potential victory. 

Say what?

If Kamala wins the u.s. likely stays in the same course as the last 100 years. Stock market goes up as it always does over the long term. 

If trump wins, this could be the big one. Shock to the system. Massive tariffs and changes to tax code. Mass deportations. Isolationism. Disruption of the bond market. Stock market goes down and continues to go down for years. 

So betting big on trump winning is a hedge against that.

Last week I posted about the massive amounts of $$ going into polymarket trump bets, and asked why?

This article has a fascinating economic theory take on it:

If you believe in u.s. equities (10% ARR) betting big on trump in prediction markets is a massive hedge against his potential victory. 

Say what?

If Kamala wins the u.s. likely stays in the same course as the last 100 years. Stock market goes up as it always does over the long term. 

If trump wins, this could be the big one. Shock to the system. Massive tariffs and changes to tax code. Mass deportations. Isolationism. Disruption of the bond market. Stock market goes down and continues to go down for years. 

So betting big on trump winning is a hedge against that.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/27/business/market-history-elections-disasters.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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only if you're heavily invested in western markets. if you're heavily invested in black markets, and the west has you strangled with sanctions, you probably see this as an investment opportunity to sway public opinion toward a more favorable candidate for you.