politics

Last week I posted about the massive amounts of $$ going into polymarket trump bets, and asked why?

This article has a fascinating economic theory take on it:

If you believe in u.s. equities (10% ARR) betting big on trump in prediction markets is a massive hedge against his potential victory. 

Say what?

If Kamala wins the u.s. likely stays in the same course as the last 100 years. Stock market goes up as it always does over the long term. 

If trump wins, this could be the big one. Shock to the system. Massive tariffs and changes to tax code. Mass deportations. Isolationism. Disruption of the bond market. Stock market goes down and continues to go down for years. 

So betting big on trump winning is a hedge against that.

Last week I posted about the massive amounts of $$ going into polymarket trump bets, and asked why?

This article has a fascinating economic theory take on it:

If you believe in u.s. equities (10% ARR) betting big on trump in prediction markets is a massive hedge against his potential victory. 

Say what?

If Kamala wins the u.s. likely stays in the same course as the last 100 years. Stock market goes up as it always does over the long term. 

If trump wins, this could be the big one. Shock to the system. Massive tariffs and changes to tax code. Mass deportations. Isolationism. Disruption of the bond market. Stock market goes down and continues to go down for years. 

So betting big on trump winning is a hedge against that.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/27/business/market-history-elections-disasters.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Christ Jason, that article is absolute sensational trash.

To put it in short: he's read a book on what happened during the regime of the third reich in Germany, not mentioning any parallels nor analysis to and on the current economic climate - is how he's arrived to his conclusion as to what will happen next. 

😆 🔫