balajis pfp
balajis
@balajis.eth
What's the over/under on whether Twitter recovers? It's quite possible that some combination of algo changes, anti-Elon sentiment, loss of personnel, and rise of private chats has finally killed Twitter as the public warzone. If so, it's arguably good for society We may finally enter the era of decentralized media...
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Corbin Page pfp
Corbin Page
@corbin.eth
I think a changing of the guard happens over the next 3-5 years but unclear how fast it occurs. We still don’t have an alternative product with exponential network effects. That will likely be a slow burn until it isn’t, like Discord/Tiktok. 🏒 The question is who will it be and whether it’s decentralized or
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Varun Srinivasan pfp
Varun Srinivasan
@v
it’s entering rent extraction mode which is short term good for the business but opens the door for disruption by decentralized play in the long term
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tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
Tbh it has great chance to become a Network State? Recognized Founder: Elon Moral Principle: “In Elon We Trust” Sense of Civility: Cancel-free zone Collective Action: Donate data to Neuralink + Tesla AI algos Integrated Cryptocurrency: Doge Crowdfunded Territory: Mars https://i.imgur.com/x8sZCj9.jpg
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Ryan Anderson
@ra
I imagine it’s going to slowly bleed valuable users until some major change pushes it beyond the point of no return. Pinpointing the exact moment the network effect was unrecoverable will likely be the subject of several future PhD theses.
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Shashank
@0xshash
definitely feels like Elon is optimizing for business value in the short term with Twitter blue, changes to ads model, absurd API pricing, layoffs etc. yet to see any large blue sky projects and these might take a while while the unit economics stabilize
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chet
@cosmicblend
I think there’ll always be a few giant gathering spots. maybe twitter, maybe not. I also think that most of our cherished experiences will come from “small social”. I’ve observed this for a few years with my kids and their peers. They context switch into small niche communities that appeal to them
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McBain
@mcbain
I still believe the big reveal for twitter is it being the exclusive platform through which robo taxis can be hailed Making the transition to WeChat finally obvious to everyone
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Katsuya
@kn
History says never bet against Elon One interesting thing about Twitter is that it’s the only social network where it’s cool for the young gen to see the older gens active. But on other networks, the young gen tends to move away from where the older gens are, which often can cause a slow death of the incumbents.
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Luiz Ramalho
@luiz
80/20 imo. It’s possible to kill Twitter, but hard to bet against network effects and Elon at the same time. I’m sure he’ll find a way to make the company work, but may lose the town square status — maybe it will become an amusement park
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Mac Budkowski ᵏ
@macbudkowski
40 - it dies, 60 - it returns. They experiment at a startup pace, so they mess up tons of things. But they're 2-3 good experiments from turning around, imo. I believe than Elon will fight to the end.
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Ben 🟪
@benersing
50/50
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notdevin
@notdevin.eth
I'm not investing my data into closed streams any longer. The legacy apps I'm using will stay until there are open alts. I'm sure af not going back to a place thats data gated
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scottrepreneur
@scottrepreneur.eth
This API decision is the death nail. Our data/content will not be ours unless reclaimed. Live sufficiently decentralized.
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adrienne
@adrienne
Depends on how you define recover. Hard to imagine it going back to the way it was but I can still see a future for it amidst a more fragmented and decentralized media environment 25/75 on strong recovery 80/20 on a good enough recovery
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raz
@raz
So excited about the possibility of this. As someone who grew up navigating hundreds of IRC channels, forum threads and blog post comment sections, this feels like home, compared to the often wild asymmetry of "social media"
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Jonny Mack
@nonlinear.eth
65/35 dead/recovers. i’m rooting for elon (paid for 2 annual subscriptions today, personal and company) and at the same time am tired of the wormbrain clown show culture war. maybe its good for the divisive machine to die? seems like most people don’t actually want to be in the same digital town square all the time
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Kiran
@kiran
80/20 success/death, I’m sure Elon’s experiments will work
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abs
@abs
Chances of someone scraping and open sourcing the social graph... effectively giving people an easier transition to more Decentralized platforms?
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Henrik
@escapingflatland
What are some good numbers to track concerning Twitter's health?
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