Thomas on Warpcast

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Thomas pfp

@aviationdoctor.eth

I don’t understand why anyone would pit Polymarket’s U.S. election market against the likes of Nate Silver, or compare it with any election survey really. An election survey only asks “who do you want to see win the election” (aka who do you intend to vote for). It’s a question about one’s own personal preference. Polymarket asks “who do you expect will win the election”. It’s a question about guessing the collective preference. Add in the confounding practice of bet hedging, and Polymarket is not only a terrible survey instrument for measuring personal intentions, but arguably a questionable predictor of electoral outcomes, too. The only upside to this noise is that it brings a great crypto use case (prediction markets) into the spotlight, and by extension, drives onboarding

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I think both models have their pros and cons. Polymarkets and the idea that money improves prediction makes sense to me to a certain extend, while at the same time we have to expect people to abuse this via e.g. "buying your candidate to control the narrative" or "hedge" other investments. At the same time 538 et al are also far from being perfect (some voter audiences being hard to reach, not willing to give their real vote etc.). So both combined likely are a good setup for the future, especially for raising questions when both models contradict (which is not the case in this US election, both are a coin flip right now).

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https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1853818243003125934 Just saw this. If this is true... wow.

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daivd 🎩👽 ↑

Doesn't Nate Silver work for Polymarket?

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GIGAMΞSH pfp

They react to news faster, but seems pretty unlikely they're consistently better at predicting races. Polling is messy but markets aren't completely rational.

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🌹 zach harris 🥀 pfp

🌹 zach harris 🥀

@zachharris.eth

Degenerate gambling math is not statistically significant. Nate still is a witch.

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As a markets/bayesian, I don't think Polymarket is asking anything. I still think the correct @polymarket interpretation is: "Given the current data and priors *and available liquidity* (key point), here is what the market will charge you to bet on an outcome of the election." The stats guys are arguing over statistics when the pricing is based on market processes.

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Luigi Stranieri

@luigistranieri

I don’t remember where I read this but seems that Allan Lichtman predicted all the elections winner. And he said that KH will win. 🤷🏼‍♂️

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youssef pfp

Because most people look at PM the same way they look at polls and forecasts But you're right, prediction markets are a terrible tool for predictions, that's why I prefer "betting markets", it's good for other things

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Luka →{protocell:labs}← 🎩 pfp

Luka →{protocell:labs}← 🎩

Some of my thoughts on this 👇 https://warpcast.com/luka/0x171b2711

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