EthFinance

I don’t understand why anyone would pit Polymarket’s U.S. election market against the likes of Nate Silver, or compare it with any election survey really.

An election survey only asks “who do you want to see win the election” (aka who do you intend to vote for). It’s a question about one’s own personal preference.

Polymarket asks “who do you expect will win the election”. It’s a question about guessing the collective preference.

Add in the confounding practice of bet hedging, and Polymarket is not only a terrible survey instrument for measuring personal intentions, but arguably a questionable predictor of electoral outcomes, too.

The only upside to this noise is that it brings a great crypto use case (prediction markets) into the spotlight, and by extension, drives onboarding

PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Aviator, diver, ETH maxi, nexialist | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

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I don’t know where he is now, but regardless, I’m referring to traditional sampling and statistical surveys

Polymarket

I don't think Nate Silver being an advisor to PM is influencing his forecasts at all, or that he's a "Thiel shill" or whatever, but I think it does mean he has a harder time explaining clearly (like he does) why there's such a big bias there, he *barely* mentions any of that:
* PM trading is illegal in the USA
* PM is more promoted to right-wingers
* it's in a right-leaning bubble (crypto)
* socio-economic groups that are more likely to vote for Harris are less likely to gamble (to put it nicely), opposite is true for Trump
* way more fishes than sharks in that market

he's an advisor
https://warpcast.com/yssf.eth/0x89e5adbb