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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
I don’t understand why anyone would pit Polymarket’s U.S. election market against the likes of Nate Silver, or compare it with any election survey really. An election survey only asks “who do you want to see win the election” (aka who do you intend to vote for). It’s a question about one’s own personal preference. Polymarket asks “who do you expect will win the election”. It’s a question about guessing the collective preference. Add in the confounding practice of bet hedging, and Polymarket is not only a terrible survey instrument for measuring personal intentions, but arguably a questionable predictor of electoral outcomes, too. The only upside to this noise is that it brings a great crypto use case (prediction markets) into the spotlight, and by extension, drives onboarding
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Benido
@benido
I think both models have their pros and cons. Polymarkets and the idea that money improves prediction makes sense to me to a certain extend, while at the same time we have to expect people to abuse this via e.g. "buying your candidate to control the narrative" or "hedge" other investments. At the same time 538 et al are also far from being perfect (some voter audiences being hard to reach, not willing to give their real vote etc.). So both combined likely are a good setup for the future, especially for raising questions when both models contradict (which is not the case in this US election, both are a coin flip right now).
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Benido
@benido
Just saw it’s technically not a coinflip on polymarkets anymore with trump being 56/44. My remarks were more long term though. Could be the case this is manipulation and the market is not yet efficient and not liquid enough (less likely). Down the road this will be harder if PM can establish itself as a key source for predictions.
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