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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
I don’t understand why anyone would pit Polymarket’s U.S. election market against the likes of Nate Silver, or compare it with any election survey really. An election survey only asks “who do you want to see win the election” (aka who do you intend to vote for). It’s a question about one’s own personal preference. Polymarket asks “who do you expect will win the election”. It’s a question about guessing the collective preference. Add in the confounding practice of bet hedging, and Polymarket is not only a terrible survey instrument for measuring personal intentions, but arguably a questionable predictor of electoral outcomes, too. The only upside to this noise is that it brings a great crypto use case (prediction markets) into the spotlight, and by extension, drives onboarding
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Monteluna
@monteluna
As a markets/bayesian, I don't think Polymarket is asking anything. I still think the correct @polymarket interpretation is: "Given the current data and priors *and available liquidity* (key point), here is what the market will charge you to bet on an outcome of the election." The stats guys are arguing over statistics when the pricing is based on market processes.
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