McBain pfp
McBain
@mcbain
How are we feeling about Balaji’s prediction?
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borodutch pfp
borodutch
@warpcastadmin.eth
i love Balaji but US literally has never experienced hyperinflation this would be unprecedented — and i don't think that we are in unprecedented times yet maybe his definition of hyperinflation differs from the commonly accepted 50% per month i don't see US printing twice as many dollars as is already printed
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Caden Chase pfp
Caden Chase
@cbxm
Apr 2020: money supply 4x'ed in a single month this is how fast it can happen https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
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McBain pfp
McBain
@mcbain
bUt iNfLaTiOn wAs cOrPoRaTe gReEd (They absolutely took advantage but still)
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alex @ charterless.com pfp
alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
I mean - they 4x'd the supply in response to a global crisis and all we got was 8% inflation. Not sure I see them doing enough to get us to 50%... especially when >50% of the country is panicking about inflation.
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Caden Chase pfp
Caden Chase
@cbxm
8% is overall inflation though, and the numbers are massaged by including goods and services that shift households feel greater pain than that, and 8% YoY is compounding (so effective change since Mar 2020 is closer to 30%) inflation pain could lead to a flight from USD, which could happen fast, and that's the point
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alex @ charterless.com pfp
alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
Okay, I'll bite for one round. I live on savings so I'm not indifferent to this, but we also need to check some doomerism here. People have predicted the collapse of the dollar for a century. Is this the big one, maybe, but there have been worse warning signs many times before.... 1/x
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alex @ charterless.com pfp
alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
2/x 1. BLS inflation. 2020: 1.23%, 2021: 4.7, 2022: 8. Multiplied across - net inflation of ~13%. Not good but not 30.
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alex @ charterless.com pfp
alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
3/3 2. CPI calculations are always controversial, but there are as many academics who say it undercounts as overcounts. Coli vs CPI is not as clear cut as undercutting. 3. It would indeed happen fast, but we're three years removed from the largest print ever and... well.. here we are.
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alex @ charterless.com pfp
alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
tbc, i'm not a US apologist but Balaji's tweets have gotten increasingly frantic and many of the economists he cites on Twitter are like "yeah that's not what my data says" so I'm biased against strong claims without strong evidence. Esp when said claim is the collapse of the global economy.
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Caden Chase pfp
Caden Chase
@cbxm
great points, I appreciate your perspective
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