How are we feeling about Balaji’s prediction?

Midwest mom in a California dad bod || Ruthlessly pro Farcaster

i love Balaji

but US literally has never experienced hyperinflation

this would be unprecedented — and i don't think that we are in unprecedented times yet

maybe his definition of hyperinflation differs from the commonly accepted 50% per month

i don't see US printing twice as many dollars as is already printed

cto @ bwl.gg (lunchbreak.com), 80M+ users (bdut.ch) 🙏 built @remindme, @mintit, @gpt, @healthbot, farcantasy.xyz

Apr 2020: money supply 4x'ed in a single month

this is how fast it can happen

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

i'd rather kill the radio and listen to the rain hit

bUt iNfLaTiOn wAs cOrPoRaTe gReEd

(They absolutely took advantage but still)

I mean - they 4x'd the supply in response to a global crisis and all we got was 8% inflation. Not sure I see them doing enough to get us to 50%... especially when >50% of the country is panicking about inflation.

Writing about DAOs @ charterless.com.
Ex-FB, Amherst College.
Always an Eagles Fan.

Okay, I'll bite for one round. I live on savings so I'm not indifferent to this, but we also need to check some doomerism here. People have predicted the collapse of the dollar for a century. Is this the big one, maybe, but there have been worse warning signs many times before.... 1/x

8% is overall inflation though, and the numbers are massaged by including goods and services that shift 

households feel greater pain than that, and 8% YoY is compounding (so effective change since Mar 2020 is closer to 30%)

inflation pain could lead to a flight from USD, which could happen fast, and that's the point

For now only 8% it takes a long time to play out